Flash drive demand    

1.  More Than Half of New Notebooks to Use Flash Drives by Q4 2009 -  - iSuppli

2. More than half of new notebooks to use flash drives by 2010, says iSuppli   - DigiTimes.com

3. Sixty percent of notebooks will use flash memory soon -   EE Times

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1. More Than Half of New Notebooks to Use Flash Drives by Q4 2009
                                                                                                                                                             May 2, 2007
 

More than half of the new notebook PCs sold worldwide in the fourth quarter of 2009 will use some form of flash memory for data storage, up from a negligible total now, according to data from iSuppli Corp.’s new Technology Penetration Database.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, 24 million notebook PCs will be sold with some form of flash data storage, compared to a mere 143,600 in the first quarter of 2007, iSuppli predicts. This means that nearly 60 percent of the 40.1 million notebook shipments will have flash data storage in the fourth quarter of 2009, up from 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2007.

The attached figure presents iSuppli’s forecast of the penetration of flash-enabled data storage in notebook PCs.

More than a flash in the pan

“Enabling the use of flash data storage in PCs is the dramatic decline in prices for NAND-type memory parts employed in such solutions,” said Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst, compute platforms for iSuppli. “In 2003, 1Gbyte of NAND flash memory was nearly 100 times as expensive as an equivalent quantity of HDD storage, according to iSuppli. By 2009, that price gap will dwindle to a factor of slightly less than 14.”

However, with flash still far more expensive than HDDs, other factors besides cost will compel PC OEMs and consumers to adopt it. “Flash-based data storage provides significant performance improvements compared to traditional rotating magnetic storage now used in notebook PCs,” Wilkins said. “Increased performance is achieved due to the fast read times of flash memory compared to HDDs, which reduce loading times for operating systems and applications. Flash also offers improved reliability, better shock resistance and lower power consumption compared to HDDs.”

Differing paths for flash

Three different approaches now are being offered for flash data storage in PCs: Intel Corp.’s Robson, Hybrid Hard Disk Drives (HHDs), and Solid State Drives (SSDs). Each of these technologies delivers performance improvements compared to conventional HDDs.

Ultraportable and mainstream notebook PCs will show similar penetration of flash data storage throughout the next two years. More than half, or 54 percent, of the ultraportable PCs shipped in the fourth quarter of 2009 will use HHDs, while 28 percent will employ SSDs. This contrasts with the first quarter of 2007, when only 1 percent of ultraportable PCs used HHDs and there was no adoption of SSDs.

However, the ultraportable segment represents a small part of the overall notebook market, accounting for only about 10 percent of unit shipments in the first quarter of 2007. The real volumes for flash data storage will be driven by mainstream notebook PCs, which accounted for 57 percent of total mobile PCs in the first quarter of 2007. By the fourth quarter of 2009, 58 percent of mainstream notebooks will use HHDs, up from 1 percent in the first quarter of 2007. iSuppli estimates 25 percent will use SSDs, up from zero now.

Gaze into the PC crystal ball with iSuppli’s new Technology Penetration Database

Data in this article was generated by iSuppli’s new report, called the PC Crystal Ball – Technology Penetration Database. The database features iSuppli’s forecasts for the penetration of specific technologies in PCs, encompassing both desktop and notebook platforms, on a quarterly basis.

Aside from publishing iSuppli’s estimates for technology penetration across the desktop and notebook PC platforms, the database includes quarterly forecasts for sub-segments within the markets. The new database brings together the collective thinking of not just a single analyst, but that of a number of experts, as inputs to the database come from worldwide analysts covering microprocessors, chipsets, DRAM, storage and displays.

The PC Crystal Ball – Technology Penetration Database is available to subscribers of iSuppli’s Compute Platforms Service and is also sold on a one-off basis.

For more on The PC Crystal Ball – Technology Penetration Database, please visit: http://www.isuppli.com/catalog/detail.asp?id=8456

Journalists, please respond to this e-mail to receive a free press copy of this report.

For more information, please contact:

Jonathan Cassell
Editorial Director and Manager, Public Relations
iSuppli Corporation

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The number of new notebook computers using some form of flash memory for data storage will soar from a negligible amount today to more than 50% in two years, a research firm predicted Wednesday.

By the fourth quarter of 2009, 24 million notebook PCs, or 60% of the total sold, will have flash data storage, compared with only 143,600 in the first quarter of 2007, iSuppli predicted. The latter number amounts to only 0.7% of the total number of new notebooks.

Flash memory has a number of advantages over conventional hard-disk drives. With no moving parts, flash memory hardware uses less power, generates little heat, and is more resistant to shock, all major plusses for use in portable computers. Retrieval of data from flash memory devices also is faster.

The major hurdle for the technology, however, is price. Flash memory today is much more expensive than hard-disk drives. The price is expected to come down as competition and production levels increase. "Enabling the use of flash data storage in PCs is the dramatic decline in prices for NAND-type memory parts employed in such solutions," iSuppli analyst Matthew Wilkins said in a statement.

Four years ago, 1 Gbyte of flash memory was nearly 100 times more expensive as an equivalent amount of HDD, or hard-disk drive, storage, according to iSuppli. By 2009, the price gap is expected to fall to a factor of slightly less than 14. While still expensive when compared with HDD storage, the lower price, in combination with flash memory's advantages, are expected to be enough to drive adoption.

ISuppli sees three approaches to flash data storage evolving over the next couple of years: Intel's Robson, hybrid hard-disk drives, and solid-state drives. Robson is the code name for a platform technology that uses flash memory to increase system responsiveness, make multitasking faster, and extend battery life.

Manufacturers have been ramping up production of flash memory devices. Samsung, for example, recently introduced a 64-Gbyte solid-state flash drive for ultra-portable notebooks. The South Korean company unveiled the 1.8-inch drive at its annual Mobile Solution Forum in Taipei, Taiwan, and said it planned to start mass production in this quarter.

Fujitsu in April said it was halting plans to make a 1.8-inch hard-disk drive for handheld devices to focus on flash drives, the preferred technology among manufacturers. Fujitsu's HDD had been aimed at ultra-portable notebooks and digital media players, such as the Apple iPod.